Le transhumanisme est une approche interdisciplinaire qui nous amène à comprendre et à évaluer les avenues qui nous permettrons de surmonter nos limites biologiques par les progrès technologiques.
L’évolution de l’intelligence artificielle pourrait sonner le glas de nombreuses professions. Deux chercheurs de l’Université d’Oxford estiment que 47 % des emplois aux États-Unis sont voués à être remplacés par des machines d’ici 20 ans. Carl Benedikt Frey et Michael Osborne ont examiné les probabilités d’automatisation de 702 professions au cours des 10 à 20 prochaines années. Publiés en septembre 2013, les résultats de leur étude indiquent que le conseiller en services financiers a plus d’une chance sur deux (58 %) d’être remplacé par un algorithme, ce qui le situe au 379e rang des métiers les plus à risque d’être robotisés, parmi les 702 professions analysées.
Considéré comme le parrain de la robotique aux États-Unis, le professeur, chercheur et auteur George Bekey abonde dans ce sens. « Plus de la moitié des conseillers seront des ordinateurs dans les 5 à 10 prochaines années », a-t-il prédit depuis son bureau en Californie. « Les évaluations de crédit et les obtentions de prêts se font déjà par ordinateur », rappelle-t-il.
« The authors examine how susceptible jobs are to computerisation, by implementing a novel methodology to estimate the probability of computerisation for 702 detailed occupations, using a Gaussian process classifier.
Based on these estimates, they examine expected impacts of future computerisation on US labour market outcomes, with the primary objective of analysing the number of jobs at risk and the relationship between an occupation’s probability of computerisation, wages and educational attainment.
According to their estimates, about 47 per cent of total US employment is at risk. They further provide evidence that wages and educational attainment exhibit a strong negative relationship with an occupation’s probability of computerisation. »
Dr Michael A. Osborne is a University Lecturer in the Machine Learning Research Group of the University of Oxford’s Department of Engineering Science. His research interests focus on the design of intelligent systems: algorithms capable of substituting for human time and attention. He has worked to apply his novel techniques to scientific and engineering problems in fields as diverse as astrostatistics, ornithology and sensor networks.
Dr Carl Benedikt Frey is an economics researcher with the Oxford Martin Programme on the Impacts of Future Technology and Nuffield College. His work focuses on technological change and its potential impacts on labour markets, as well as on income inequality. He has previously worked as an economist in government, academia and the financial sector.
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> The Future of Employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerisation?
« The authors examine how susceptible jobs are to computerisation, by implementing a novel methodology to estimate the probability of computerisation for 702 detailed occupations, using a Gaussian process classifier.
Based on these estimates, they examine expected impacts of future computerisation on US labour market outcomes, with the primary objective of analysing the number of jobs at risk and the relationship between an occupation’s probability of computerisation, wages and educational attainment.
According to their estimates, about 47 per cent of total US employment is at risk. They further provide evidence that wages and educational attainment exhibit a strong negative relationship with an occupation’s probability of computerisation. »
Dr Michael A. Osborne is a University Lecturer in the Machine Learning Research Group of the University of Oxford’s Department of Engineering Science. His research interests focus on the design of intelligent systems: algorithms capable of substituting for human time and attention. He has worked to apply his novel techniques to scientific and engineering problems in fields as diverse as astrostatistics, ornithology and sensor networks.
Dr Carl Benedikt Frey is an economics researcher with the Oxford Martin Programme on the Impacts of Future Technology and Nuffield College. His work focuses on technological change and its potential impacts on labour markets, as well as on income inequality. He has previously worked as an economist in government, academia and the financial sector.