Le transhumanisme est une approche interdisciplinaire qui nous amène à comprendre et à évaluer les avenues qui nous permettrons de surmonter nos limites biologiques par les progrès technologiques.
Dans l’état actuel de la technologie, 49% des emplois en Belgique sont susceptibles, à terme, d’être robotisés.
35% des emplois ont une probabilité élevée (supérieure à 70%) d’être robotisés. Une part équivalente a néanmoins une probabilité faible.
Parmi les emplois les plus « robotisables », les employés de bureau, les vendeurs dans les magasins et les aides ménagères sont les groupes qui pourraient perdre le plus d’effectifs suite à l’automatisation des tâches.
Toutefois, ces résultats sont aussi une opportunité pour l’économie : le progrès technologique permet en effet de libérer du travail pour l’exécution de nouvelles tâches et l’émergence de nouvelles activités. C’est par cette voie qu’une économie progresse.
Par ailleurs, il s’agit d’une opportunité pour compenser le plafonnement de la main d’œuvre en raison du vieillissement de la population.
Le seul grand danger serait dès lors ne pas gérer efficacement les changements à venir. L’incapacité à assimiler et à financer les nouvelles technologies, de même que le refus du progrès technologique ont en effet, dans l’histoire économique, plus d’une fois freiné la croissance économique.
Dans ce numéro de ING Focus, nous joignons de manière inédite les probabilités de robotisation des emplois telles qu’évaluées par Frey et Osborne pour les Etats-Unis , et la répartition détaillée des emplois en Belgique. Ceci permet de confirmer des résultats agrégés déjà publiés dans d’autres études, mais surtout d’obtenir une classification bien plus détaillée des emplois « robotisables » ce qui n’était pas disponible jusqu’à présent.
Dr Michael A. Osborne is a University Lecturer in the Machine Learning Research Group of the University of Oxford’s Department of Engineering Science. His research interests focus on the design of intelligent systems: algorithms capable of substituting for human time and attention. He has worked to apply his novel techniques to scientific and engineering problems in fields as diverse as astrostatistics, ornithology and sensor networks.
Dr Carl Benedikt Frey is an economics researcher with the Oxford Martin Programme on the Impacts of Future Technology and Nuffield College. His work focuses on technological change and its potential impacts on labour markets, as well as on income inequality. He has previously worked as an economist in government, academia and the financial sector.
« The authors examine how susceptible jobs are to computerisation, by implementing a novel methodology to estimate the probability of computerisation for 702 detailed occupations, using a Gaussian process classifier.
Based on these estimates, they examine expected impacts of future computerisation on US labour market outcomes, with the primary objective of analysing the number of jobs at risk and the relationship between an occupation’s probability of computerisation, wages and educational attainment.
According to their estimates, about 47 per cent of total US employment is at risk. They further provide evidence that wages and educational attainment exhibit a strong negative relationship with an occupation’s probability of computerisation. »
Dr Michael A. Osborne is a University Lecturer in the Machine Learning Research Group of the University of Oxford’s Department of Engineering Science. His research interests focus on the design of intelligent systems: algorithms capable of substituting for human time and attention. He has worked to apply his novel techniques to scientific and engineering problems in fields as diverse as astrostatistics, ornithology and sensor networks.
Dr Carl Benedikt Frey is an economics researcher with the Oxford Martin Programme on the Impacts of Future Technology and Nuffield College. His work focuses on technological change and its potential impacts on labour markets, as well as on income inequality. He has previously worked as an economist in government, academia and the financial sector.
> The Future of Employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerisation?
« The authors examine how susceptible jobs are to computerisation, by implementing a novel methodology to estimate the probability of computerisation for 702 detailed occupations, using a Gaussian process classifier.
Based on these estimates, they examine expected impacts of future computerisation on US labour market outcomes, with the primary objective of analysing the number of jobs at risk and the relationship between an occupation’s probability of computerisation, wages and educational attainment.
According to their estimates, about 47 per cent of total US employment is at risk. They further provide evidence that wages and educational attainment exhibit a strong negative relationship with an occupation’s probability of computerisation. »
Dr Michael A. Osborne is a University Lecturer in the Machine Learning Research Group of the University of Oxford’s Department of Engineering Science. His research interests focus on the design of intelligent systems: algorithms capable of substituting for human time and attention. He has worked to apply his novel techniques to scientific and engineering problems in fields as diverse as astrostatistics, ornithology and sensor networks.
Dr Carl Benedikt Frey is an economics researcher with the Oxford Martin Programme on the Impacts of Future Technology and Nuffield College. His work focuses on technological change and its potential impacts on labour markets, as well as on income inequality. He has previously worked as an economist in government, academia and the financial sector.